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Severe thunderstorms are likely from afternoon into Thursday morning

Be prepared for an increase in thunderstorm activity across the eastern 75 percent of Texas this afternoon through Thursday. Some of the storms may produce large hail, damaging winds and possibly tornadoes. The heavy rainfall also poses a risk of further flooding.

Severe thunderstorms are possible in East Texas after 3 p.m. until sunrise Thursday.  Thunderstorms are not expected in the Coastal Bend and deep South Texas;  or in the western Texas Panhandle and Far West Texas.

After 3 p.m., isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near the dry line in the eastern Texas Panhandle, west-central Texas, the Permian Basin and the eastern Big Bend. Most storms will move east/northeast, but be prepared for irregular storm movements due to storm splits/mergers. Some storms may even move southeast. Regardless, a supercellular storm mode is expected. The most severe storms can produce baseball- to softball-sized hail, locally damaging wind gusts in excess of 70 miles per hour and the threat of a tornado. Today's tornado threat is low, but certainly not zero. We expect live severe weather coverage will be required for tornado warnings today and this evening.

While storms continue across western portions of Texas this afternoon, isolated to isolated thunderstorms could also develop in the Hill Country, South Central Texas and Central Texas. There is no guarantee that such storms should occur, but if they develop they could also become superstorms with the risk of all kinds of severe weather. A lower probability, but still worth mentioning. Storms would move north/northeast.

By this evening, thunderstorms will develop into one or more clusters across West Texas. Once higher growth occurs, the storms move eastward more quickly. Tonight's squall line will move eastward over Northwest Texas, Big Country, Concho Valley, Texoma, North Texas, Central Texas, Hill Country, Edwards Plateau and South Central Texas early Thursday morning.

Damaging straight-line winds, micro-sized hail, embedded spin-up tornadoes and heavy rainfall are expected in the strongest storms. As storms develop across central parts of Texas this afternoon, they too may form into a group. Finally, storms are expected to move into Northeast Texas, East Texas, Brazos Valley, Southeast Texas and the Golden Triangle Thursday morning.Predicts rainfall amounts across Texas through 7 a.m. Saturday.  One to five inches of rain may fall in North Texas, Central Texas, Hill Country, South Central Texas, Brazos Valley, East Texas and Southeast Texas.  Flooding is a major problem for the Brazos Valley, East Texas and Southeast Texas.Predicts rainfall amounts across Texas through 7 a.m. Saturday.  One to five inches of rain may fall in North Texas, Central Texas, Hill Country, South Central Texas, Brazos Valley, East Texas and Southeast Texas.  Flooding is a major problem for the Brazos Valley, East Texas and Southeast Texas.

Chance of storms: Thursday afternoon through Friday

If all storms clear in time over the next 24 hours, isolated to isolated severe thunderstorms could develop near the dry line in northwest Texas and the Big Country late Thursday afternoon. These storms are likely to be superstorms with the potential for very large hail, locally damaging winds and possibly a tornado. The chance of showers and thunderstorms increases Thursday night into Friday morning across parts of the eastern half of Texas as a cool front slowly moves south.

A cool front will bring comparatively cooler temperatures to the northern half of Texas on Friday and Saturday. High temperatures will dip into the 70s and lower 80s while the southern half will remain warm to hot. On Sunday and Monday the southerly wind will come back into full swing. The active weather looks likely to continue through the weekend and into early next week. However, the likelihood of severe thunderstorms is likely to be lower over the weekend – with “only” a chance of thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall.

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