Third parties gain ground, Biden struggles, Trump

Third parties gain ground as Biden tries to maintain his lead; Trump fails to gain ground among black voters.

President Biden's dwindling support among black voters has raised alarm bells among Democrats and raised hopes among Republicans that Donald Trump could make historic gains among a key portion of their opposition's voting base.

But exclusive USA TODAY and Suffolk University polls of black voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two crucial swing states, reveal more complicated dynamics within a demographic that is unexpectedly playing a role in November's election.

The polls of 500 black voters in each state, conducted by landline and cellphone from June 9 to 13, have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Here are seven insights.

Exclusive survey: Black voters are not enthusiastic about Biden, but like Trump less

1. Yes, Biden has a problem.

The president has suffered significant losses among black voters who supported him in 2020.

Seventy-six percent of respondents in both states said they voted for Biden four years ago. Meanwhile, his support has fallen by 20 percentage points in Pennsylvania (to 56 percent) and by 22 percentage points in Michigan (to 54 percent).

Post-election polls in 2020 showed Biden receiving 92% of the black vote in every state, making his decline even steeper now.

The main reason given by poll respondents was dissatisfaction with his work in the White House, followed by concerns about his age and mental health. In third place was concern about wars, including his support for Israel in the Gaza conflict.

Biden was viewed favorably in Michigan by 61% to 31% and in Pennsylvania by 59% to 33%. While this is positive overall, it is a weak result for a candidate among a portion of the electorate that has overwhelmingly supported his party for decades.

By comparison, former President Barack Obama, the country's only black president, received approval ratings of 88% to 9% in Michigan and 84% to 11% in Pennsylvania.

2. But black voters are not yet convinced by Trump.

Biden's big losses led to small gains for Trump.

In the poll, 15 percent of black voters in Michigan supported the likely Republican nominee, compared to 9 percent who voted for him in 2020. In Pennsylvania, the figure was 11 percent, compared to 8 percent in 2020.

Polls after the last election showed that Trump received 7% of the black vote in every state.

Of course, even limited shifts in support could make a difference in a very close contest.

Trump received more support from black men than from black women by a ratio of more than two to one – 22% to 9% in Michigan and 16% to 6% in Pennsylvania.

Overall, he was viewed much more negatively than Biden. In Michigan, Trump was viewed unfavorably by more than 3 to 1, 72% to 23%. In Pennsylvania, his unfavorable rating was even higher, at more than 5 to 1, 79% to 15%.

3. Kamala Harris is less popular than Biden

Kamala Harris made history in 2020 when she became the first woman, first Black woman and first Asian American to be elected Vice President.

Despite this status as a breakthrough candidate, she is viewed slightly less positively than Biden among black voters in these two states, although her rejection rate is also slightly lower: 60% to 24% in Michigan and 55% to 30% in Pennsylvania.

If Biden did not run for president for some reason, Harris would have been preferred over several other notable Democrats, including 2016 candidate Hillary Clinton, California Governor Gavin Newsom and Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock.

Harris was the second choice in Pennsylvania and the third in Michigan, where her home state governor, Gretchen Whitmer, was in second place.

In first place in both states: former First Lady Michelle Obama, who has made it clear that she has no interest in running for office or moving back into the White House.

4. For Trump, the decision to choose a black vice presidential candidate could backfire.

A majority of black voters (between 55 and 59 percent) said they would be less likely to vote for Trump if he chose one of the three black men frequently mentioned as possible vice presidential candidates: former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott and Florida Representative Byron Donalds.

This negative reaction exceeded the number of those who said these potential running mate candidates would make them more likely to support the Republican ticket – 17% for Carson, 10% for Scott and 7% for Donalds.

5. Trump as a fellow victim of injustice? Not really.

Trump has speculated that his legal troubles – including his conviction on 34 counts in New York and three more pending charges – have increased his support among black people in America because they see him as a fellow victim of an unfair justice system.

That argument was proven false in this poll. In Michigan, black voters disagreed by a margin of 5 to 1 (79% to 15%). In Pennsylvania, they disagreed by a margin of 7 to 1 (84% to 12%).

In addition, 55 percent of respondents in Michigan and 64 percent in Pennsylvania said they found Trump's comments personally offensive.

That doesn't mean, however, that respondents think the criminal justice system is fair. More than 7 in 10 in every state said it was unfair, and the majority said they personally knew someone who had been wrongfully convicted.

6. The verdict: Lock him up.

Nearly two-thirds of black voters in both states — 64% in Michigan and 65% in Pennsylvania — said Trump's conviction in New York for falsifying business records as part of a hush money scheme made them less inclined to vote for him.

Fifty-one percent of respondents in Michigan and 61 percent in Pennsylvania said if they were the judge in the case, they would impose the harshest punishment possible: prison time.

7. For the dissatisfied, third parties have a new appeal.

In 2020, only 1% of respondents said they voted for a third-party candidate. With Biden's departure, that number has now risen to 15% in Michigan and 16% in Pennsylvania.

In Michigan, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 8% support and Cornel West received 6%. In Pennsylvania, West received 8% and Kennedy Jr. received 7%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 1% support in both states.

A significant share of third-party supporters listed another independent candidate as their second choice. For example, West supporters in both states were most likely to choose RFK Jr.

But the results underscore Biden's chance to win or regain the loyalty of black voters who have defected to third parties. In both states and for each independent candidate, supporters were more likely to choose Biden as their second choice than Trump.

Kennedy's supporters in Pennsylvania chose Biden over Trump by 27%, while in Michigan the lead was 48%.

The question now is: Can Biden win them back?

csibon

Third parties gain ground, Biden struggles, Trump

Third parties gain ground as Biden tries to maintain his lead; Trump fails to gain ground among black voters.

1. Yes, Biden has a problem.

2. But black voters are not yet convinced by Trump.

3. Kamala Harris is less popular than Biden

4. For Trump, the decision to choose a black vice presidential candidate could backfire.

5. Trump as a fellow victim of injustice? Not really.

6. The verdict: Lock him up.

7. For the dissatisfied, third parties have a new appeal.

Anna Harden

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Third parties gain ground as Biden tries to maintain his lead; Trump fails to gain ground among black voters.

1. Yes, Biden has a problem.

2. But black voters are not yet convinced by Trump.

3. Kamala Harris is less popular than Biden

4. For Trump, the decision to choose a black vice presidential candidate could backfire.

5. Trump as a fellow victim of injustice? Not really.

6. The verdict: Lock him up.

7. For the dissatisfied, third parties have a new appeal.

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Anna Harden

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