But how many rank-and-file workers ignore union leaders and vote for Donald Trump could have crucial implications in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, where the difference could be 100,000 votes or less.

Biden's supporters point to the incumbent's reliable support for unions, his ties to the working-class district of Scranton, Pennsylvania, and his legislative successes such as the 2021 infrastructure bill.

“We listened to Donald Trump's speeches about infrastructure for four years because it was a lot of lip service,” steelworker JoJo Burgess said in a Biden commercial. “Joe Biden delivered.”

“We currently have the most pro-worker president in office that we have ever had,” said Burgess, who is also mayor of Washington, Pennsylvania.

But Rudy Sanetta, a maintenance worker at US Steel, favors Trump for economic reasons and because of his stance on gun rights.

“I like him because of his resistance to politicians,” Sanetta said of Trump. “I don't trust the other guys.”

Working-class voters “are the most crucial because they are the ones who have actually shown that they are willing to vote for either Trump or Biden,” says Jonathan Cervas, a political scientist at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh.

Post-election polls in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in 2020 suggest that the shift to Biden of white working-class voters who favored Trump in 2016 “significantly affected the difference between victory and defeat,” according to a paper published in May by progressive political consultant Mike Lux Media and the labor organizing group In Union.

However, the newspaper pointed to recent polls that showed a decline in support for Biden among union households in Wisconsin and Michigan, while support in Pennsylvania remained unchanged compared to 2020.

“Democrats need to understand that these working-class voters in the heartland of the United States have been through many hard times over the past few decades,” the paper says, urging early outreach from trusted sources who are familiar with “the real experiences of voters” to “counter digital misinformation and social pressure.”

Since Trump's political rise, there has been fierce debate about the various reasons for the decline in Democrats' support among the white working class.

Some commentators view Trump's surprise victory in 2016 as at least partly a racist backlash following Barack Obama's presidency and Trump's grappling with issues such as illegal immigration.

Other commentators, such as Ruy Teixeira of the American Enterprise Institute, say the Democratic Party's progressive positions on issues such as police reform and transgender rights are alienating more culturally conservative voters.

The 2023 book “Rust Belt Union Blues,” a case study of the Pittsburgh region, highlights the aftermath of the industrial downturn of the 1970s and 1980s, which led to massive job losses and the closure of union halls, weakening workers’ bargaining power with corporations.

The economic downturn also weakened the role of unions in the community. They had previously held picnics and other gatherings where members wore colorful badges to promote their local chapter, contributing to a solidarity centered around issues such as fair wages and health care.

Although some unions still exist, many workers who survived the downsizing in the industry now maintain a social network around religion and hunting, according to authors Lainey Newman and Theda Skocpol. Politically oriented groups tend to have more conservative views.

Bernie Hall, USW Pennsylvania district manager, agreed that many union members have different affiliations, but said work remains the focus.

“Especially in western Pennsylvania, people really identify with the union,” he said.

Hall praised Biden as a “working-class Democrat” who has helped his voters and predicted that Biden would win the majority of steelworkers, while acknowledging that Trump enjoys considerable support.

Some workers have turned to Trump to “blow up” the system after decades of industrial decline, Hall said, adding: “I still think that has a certain appeal for some people.”

Alex Barna, a machinist at US Steel, was a lifelong Democrat and voted for Obama. But since 2016, Barna has voted for Trump twice and will do so again. He attributes the strong economic situation before Covid-19 to the former president's tax cuts.

“What affected us was the wallet, and the wallet” is good, said Barna's wife Helen, comparing this to today's higher inflation.

“Many people think about the four years of mean tweets,” said Helen Barna. “At least we lived better.”

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