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The Connecticut Sun will not win a championship this year

The Connecticut Sun started 9-0 and looked like the best team in the WNBA. However, the Sun were simply overrated, as their first loss came against the New York Liberty, who were the Liberty's first real threat. Granted, the Sun were playing the Minnesota Lynx, but this was the third game of the season, and every team is still finding their feet. The Sun are a great team, but not the best and simply don't have the offense to keep up with other elite teams.

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The Connecticut Sun average just 79.8 points per game, which is actually the fourth lowest. When you factor in who they've lost to, every team except the Atlanta Dream averages over 80 points per game. Connecticut's offense is primarily powered by offensive rebounds and field goals, as they lack a true three-point offense, as they make the second fewest three-point attempts and have the third worst three-point percentage anyway. The Sun's main focus as a team is their defense, as they are the second best defense, have the third highest defensive rebound percentage, allow the opponent the second fewest second chances, and have the best fast break defense. Based on the stats, the Sun have a great starting lineup with all five players averaging over double digits in scoring and Alyssa Thomas nearly a triple-double, but looking at the Sun's last three losses, teams have held at least two starting lineups below their average. Teams are thinking about how to stop the Sun and while there is a saying that “defense wins championships,” the Sun's real options are limited when teams have top-notch offenses that have the best three-point shots and consistently good field goals.

The Sun are beating teams they should be beating, but they are currently losing to any team with a record above .500. This is what separates them from the rest, who can consistently beat teams with a record above .500, and the Sun have even struggled against teams with a record below .500 lately. If you look at every Sun loss, the starting lineup is negative in +/- ratio and the Sun's reserve players are almost nonexistent in every loss. The Sun rely too much on their starting lineup, which makes sense because of the five players, three play over 30 minutes on average and the other two play at least 25 minutes, but on the bench they don't have anyone who averages over 5 points. So if you compare the Sun to, say, the Aces, the Aces have a decent bench to keep up with when the starters need a rest, allowing them to stay in the game against a team like the Sun that can't afford to rely on the bench for a few minutes. When you look at the rotations, it's really just one person coming off the bench and every game is different. You can hardly call this team championship ready when they're simply out of contention and have no answer against teams of the caliber of a “super team.”

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