President Biden's debate debacle has roiled Republican leaders in New York and New Jersey, who believe former President Donald Trump could be the first Republican to win their states in four decades.

While Trump is unlikely to win a majority in Republican-dominated states, party insiders and independent analysts expect him to do well enough in the suburbs to help Republican incumbents in the House of Representatives defend – and perhaps even gain – their seats from 2022.

“Trump can win New York just like Ronald Reagan did in 1980,” said New York State Republican Party Chairman Ed Cox.

According to a recent Siena College poll, Trump is trailing Biden by single digits – 8 percentage points in the Empire State, 47% to 39%. The poll was conducted a week before the June 25 debate.

A Trump campaign insider claimed that internal polls also showed the New Jersey race to be “decided.” A rally by Trump and May in Wildwood, South Jersey, drew 100,000 supporters.

Cox said Reagan's victory was due to “stagflation” under then-Democratic President Jimmy Carter and that many voters suffered similarly from Bidenflation.

“New York, a Democratic stronghold for decades, is within Trump's grasp. Conditions are ripe for a political realignment, and New York would be part of a Trump victory,” he said.

“Although New York is a blue state, it is more of a working-class state than an Upper West Side state.”

He also said Trump's campaign issues – the refugee crisis at the border, the economy and crime – resonate with frustrated Democratic-leaning voters in the Northeast.

“Biden's debate performance hurts Democrats in New York who are running for swing seats,” said O'Brien “OB” Murray, a campaign strategist who has worked for Republicans and Democrats.

He said Republican Rep. Michael Lawyer may have an easier time winning re-election in his first term in the Hudson Valley's 17th Congressional District against Democratic former Rep. Mondaire Jones.

Murray also said Biden’s implosion makes it “more difficult” for moderate Democrat John Avlon, – a former speechwriter for Rudy Giuliani – to oust Republican Congressman Nick LaLota in his first term in the 1st Congressional District, which includes the East End of Long Island and Suffolk County.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the Hudson, Republicans in New Jersey say Trump could be the first Republican to win a majority in New Jersey since George HW Bush defeated Democrat George Dukakis in 1988.

“Biden's debate performance was so poor that New Jersey is definitely in play. The result is that our US Senate candidate Curtis Bashaw has a real chance and Congressman [Tom] “It made Kean's re-election easier,” said Bill Palatucci, a Garden State-based member of the National Republican Campaign Committee and friend of former Governor Chris Christie.

The New Jersey Republican Party launched an online fundraiser shortly after the debate, claiming in bold letters: “NEW JERSEY IS IN THE GAME.”

“We are working every day to reach every single voter in New Jersey and spread the message that we are in it to win!” said the Jersey Republican.

Doug Muzzio, a professor emeritus of public affairs at Baruch College who lives in New Jersey and called Biden's performance in the debate a “disaster,” said: “New Jersey is more in play this election cycle.

“It's New Jersey. Crazy things happen in New Jersey. It's not impossible. It's plausible, but only remotely.”

New York Democrats – under the leadership of Governor Kathy Hochul – have rallied behind Biden's car, despite calls from the liberal editorial board of the New York Times and even some Democrats that the 81-year-old should step down and give another Democrat a chance to take on Trump.

In an interview with MSNBC on Sunday, Hochul fiercely defended Biden and urged his fellow Democrats to pull themselves together and get back “on the team.”

“You have a rough night. The morning after defines you,” Hochul said.

She claimed Biden was “energetic and alert” when she saw him at the visitor center of Stonewall National Monument in New York on Friday.

“Turn off the chattering voices inside the Ringstrasse… the editorial offices. Everyone is lecturing that they have the answer.”

Biden is far better for the country than the “convict” Trump, who will sow chaos and a constitutional crisis if he ends up back in the White House, Hochul said.

“I say to my friends who are Democrats: Wake up today, start with a plan, get back on the team and march to victory,” she said.

New York State Democratic Party Chairman Jay Jacobs said Biden had a “bad night” during the debate but could get back in the saddle.

“I want to caution Republicans who are excited about a setback for the Democratic nominee, President Biden. I remember being excited in 2016 when the Access Hollywood tape was released. I thought Trump was done for,” Jacobs said.

The infamous video shows Trump making lewd comments about women, including saying it's OK to “grab their pussy.” The video was released a month before the election between Trump and Hillary Clinton.

Trump won the election.