On Thursday, Wolff told The Sun in a telephone interview that revenues in June looked better than in April and May.

“Should we be nervous? Not necessarily, considering how things are looking for June so far,” said Wolff. “So far, things are looking pretty good for June.”

Final figures for the 2024 fiscal year could be available at the end of July, once June sales are calculated and year-end reconciliations and data entry are completed, Wolff said.

Wolff said Gov. Brad Little and the Idaho Legislature have set aside an unspent balance of about $200 million in the fiscal year 2024 budget to protect against missed revenue projections like the one the state experienced this spring.

The state has also been building up its emergency funds in recent years, Wolff said. The state has an estimated $1.3 billion – an amount equivalent to 22 percent of the general fund budget – in its main reserve funds, Wolff said.

“These reserves, along with a healthy $200 million bottom line balance, ensure that Idaho has a structurally balanced budget to weather any revenue shortfall or economic change,” Wolff wrote in a follow-up email to the Sun on Friday.

The impact on Idaho citizens is that the state will have less money available for property taxes if there is no budget surplus this year. House Bill 292the Idaho Legislature's bill to cut property taxes starting in 2023 was worded so that the first $50 million of any state budget surplus at the end of a fiscal year would automatically be transferred to the property tax cut for homeowners. If there is no surplus, the transfer does not occur.

The prospect of no budget surplus is a change for the state, which has broken records for budget surpluses in recent years. Fiscal year 2021 ended with a state budget surplus of about $900 million, which was a record at the time. The Sun had previously reportedA year later, the 2022 fiscal year ended with a budget surplus of $2 billion, sets another new record.

The state used its previous surpluses in part to reduce income taxes and Grant tax rebatesincrease Education fundingpay 600 million dollars in Road and bridge repairs spread over three years or more.

As a result of these tax cuts, government revenues are reduced.

In both April and May, government revenues fell short of forecasts.

In April, sales were $60.3 million below forecasts. The Sun had previously reportedIn May, revenues were about $124.3 million below forecasts, according to Idaho General Fund Revenue Report.

Missed income tax forecasts accounted for much of the shortfall. For May, provisions for income taxes were $65.1 million, below the $184.8 million forecast, while $127.5 million was paid in income tax refunds, above the $77.1 million forecast. The state also missed the forecast on corporate tax refunds, paying out $10.6 million in refunds when only $4.4 million had been forecast.

“These failures were disappointing because I had hoped we would have a surplus for our property tax cut,” Senator Scott Grow (R-Eagle) said in a telephone interview Friday.

Grow is co-chair of the Idaho Legislature's Joint Finance and Budget Committee – an influential committee that sets every element of the state budget. Grow also co-sponsored House Bill 292, which provides for the property tax.