This story was originally published by Montana Free Press.

Tribal communities have been a key part of the voting base that gives Montana Democrats the ability to run for statewide offices for decades. But a close look at turnout numbers in the June 4 party primaries in the state's eight majority-Native American counties suggests there may be cracks in that coalition, as turnout in the Republican primaries in those counties was higher than the number of Democrats who cast ballots.

This year's primary was the first for the districts established after the 2020 census. Historical election data analyzed by Dave's Redistricting shows that these reservation districts tend to lean Democratic by margins ranging from 10 to 27 percentage points.

Democratic turnout in reservation districts is likely to be significantly higher this fall, says Republican Dan Stusek, who served on the commission that redrawn Montana's electoral districts after the 2020 census.

“I wouldn't be too optimistic,” Stusek said of the low voter turnout in the primaries. “I expect the Democrats to do well in the fall in Big Horn County, Blaine County, Roosevelt County, especially in the reservation counties in eastern Montana.”

In March, the Democratic Party announced a multimillion-dollar “Big Sky Victory” plan to increase Native American voter turnout, a move that came as Native American turnout in key districts in the 2022 general election was at a 20-year low and Democrats were unable to boost Native voter turnout for a statewide candidate.

State Sen. Susan Webber, Democrat of Browning, was a candidate in 2022. This time, Webber said, a message specifically for Montana's Native Americans was needed to boost voter turnout. The next legislative session will address the renewal of Medicaid expansion, which is critical to her constituents, she said, noting that they were unaware that 1,300 Native American children had lost coverage due to re-enrollment issues.

“We really need a strong message, and it needs to be applicable to the reservations, because it always happens that the reservations are left out of everything. People don't see themselves as part of the bigger picture,” Webber said.

Native voter turnout is critical to the prospects of Democratic candidates in state elections, including U.S. Senator Jon Tester, the only Democrat from Montana currently holding statewide office and who is widely seen as vulnerable to Republican efforts to take control of the Senate.

Voter turnout was extremely low on the reservations in the spring, said Joe Lamson, a Democrat on the Election Commission. He expects voter turnout to increase again in the fall.

But voter turnout in the 2024 primary looks similar to 2022 in two of the most populous reservations, the Crow Reservation southeast of Billings and the Blackfeet Reservation along the Rocky Mountains. Both have 14,762 registered voters.

Big Horn County, which includes the Crow reservation, had the state's lowest voter turnout this year at 23%, 5 percentage points lower than the 2022 primary's turnout of 28%. Glacier County, where the Blackfeet reservation is located, was at 26% – exactly the same level as the 2022 primary that preceded a general election in which turnout hit a 20-year low of 38%. Those counties had 431 fewer votes cast than in 2022. They also had 422 fewer people registered to vote.

In the state's eight constituencies where the majority of indigenous people live, the following voter turnout was recorded on June 4:

• House District 15 (portions of the Blackfeet and Flathead reservations) – 718 votes were cast unopposed in the district's Republican primary, and 705 votes were cast unopposed in the Democratic primary.
• House District 16 (part of the Blackfeet Reservation) – 843 votes in a contested Republican primary and 760 votes in an uncontested Democratic primary.
• House District 31 (Parts of the Fort Belknap and Fort Peck reservations) – 632 votes in an unopposed Republican primary and 516 votes in an opposed Democratic primary.
• House District 32 (parts of the Fort Belknap, Fort Peck and Rocky Boy reservations) – 708 Republican primary votes and 413 Democratic primary votes. Both primaries were inconclusive.
• House District 41 (parts of the Crow and Northern Cheyenne reservations) – 403 Republican primary votes and 370 Democratic primary votes. Both primaries were inconclusive.
• House District 42 (parts of the Crow Reservation) – 771 votes in the Republican primary and 455 votes in the Democratic primary.
• Senate District 16 (Parts of the Fort Belknap, Fort Peck, and Rocky Boy reservations) – 1,303 votes in an unopposed Republican primary, 977 votes in an opposed Democratic primary.
• Senate District 21 (parts of the Crow and Northern Cheyenne reservations) – 1,417 votes in an unopposed Republican primary, 906 votes in an opposed Democratic primary.

Political and investigative reporter Tom Lutey has covered the West for 30 years, primarily from Montana and Washington, covering legislatures, Congress, the courts, energy, agriculture and occasionally militias.

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