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Jordan Montgomery's season in Arizona is getting worse







Diamondbacks pitcher Jordan Montgomery sits on the bench during a game against the Cardinals on Tuesday, April 23, 2024, at Busch Stadium.


David Carson, Post-Dispatch


Here's how it went for former Cardinals pitcher Jordan Montgomery this season in Arizona:

He signed late with the Diamondbacks after agent Scott Boras tried to wait out the pitcher market to get him a huge long-term contract. Montgomery missed spring training, then settled for a short-term deal and, as expected, struggled early on.

Montgomery (6-5, 6.44 ERA) finally settled in in June, posting a 2.70 ERA in three starts and looking more like his old self.

Then the ceiling collapsed in a 13-6 loss to the Minnesota Twins. He allowed eight runs (seven earned) on ten hits in 2 2/3 innings.

“I just expect a lot from myself,” Montgomery told reporters afterward. “I know I've let a lot of my teammates down and I'm just trying to get better.”

There were some blind-eye hits and some fielding mishaps, but he allowed too much physical contact. Diamondbacks fans booed him off the field.

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When Montgomery reached the dugout after being pulled out, he vented his frustration by hurling his PitchCom device against the wall.

“I don't really know what to feel,” Montgomery said. “As if every ball had found a hole, it would have [hit] 60 miles an hour, it could have been 100. So I just have to keep going. I got my four-seamer in there, I blocked them a lot. But it didn't do anything. I got them on the ground and it seems like everything found a hole or was just out of range or was spinning funny.”

While throwing between starts, Montgomery developed knee pain and landed on the 15-day injured list with inflammation of his right patellar tendon.

This injury gives him a chance to catch his breath, come back after the All-Star break and try to do better.

Alexandra Whitley analyzed Montgomery’s numbers for Baseball Prospectus:

After Thursday, Montgomery has a BABIP of .351. DRA-, which doesn't care about past performance, has continued to accuse him of a 26.9% line drive rate, and with the strikeout rate plummeting from 21.4% to 15.8%, he's 39% below league average per inning.

The question of whether this is the delayed start to his season ramp-up or a decline is a difficult one. DRA never liked him, and a decline in velocity could be due to either his age, missing spring training, or both. One could tell oneself that other small issues matter — his sinker sinks a little less with a little less run, his four-seamer has a little less range, his changeup drips more across the plate against righties, and his sinker usage against lefties shifts more to the middle after being up and inside last year. But those are differences of 0.5 inches or less in throwing motion or estimates of contours on situation charts that are hardly worth booing off the field.

The obvious reason for this is that he loses 1.5 points of velocity overall, while the less obvious reason is a significantly worse curveball. After topping out at 80.5 mph with -6.6 inches of induced vertical break (IVB) and 3.0 inches of gloveside cut, Montgomery's 2023 curveball is not only slower (78.9 mph) but also breaks more (-8.0 inches of IVB with 4.9 inches of gloveside cut). And there might be good news on that front. After the curveball regained its normal velocity, both the induced vertical and horizontal breaks were more in line with those of 2023. Even though he threw it on the ground a lot this Thursday, he posted excellent 40% chase and 50% whiff rates, and the shape (and dubious control) was similar in his last start against the Phillies.

The good news for Montgomery is that his short-term contract offers him some financial security. He will make $25 million this season and has already exercised his player option for next season for $20 million.

If he recovers from his knee injury and starts 25 games this season, his player option for next season will increase to $25 million.

Montgomery will likely take advantage of this, enjoy a normal break from work, show up on time for spring training next year, and tackle the 2025 season right.

Here is what people are writing about our national sport:

Stephen J. Nesbitt, The athlete: “The Cardinals catapulted themselves into wild-card position this summer and are out of seller territory. But if they make a long postseason run, it will be because the current core has come to life. The talent is there, and the pieces are showing signs of fitting together recently. Would impactful transfers make St. Louis better? Of course! But the focus will likely be on improving in the short term without sacrificing the future. The Cardinals could use a starter in the middle of the rotation; another reliever or two; a bench that includes someone—anyone!—with a batting average above .200. These aren't sexy transfers, but they could prove to be critical improvements.”

David Schoenfield, ESPN.com: “Similar to Philadelphia, St. Louis could use reinforcements in center field. That position has long been something of a revolving door for the Cardinals: The last player to start 110 games there was Jon Jay in 2013. They wanted to put Tommy Edman there, but he was out all season after wrist surgery. Lars Nootbaar got hurt. Victor Scott was rushed to the major leagues and hasn't hit. Michael Siani has been excellent defensively but hasn't hit much either. The Cardinals are in a wild-card position despite a lackluster offense and a minus-40 run differential, but Robert would help the offense and give them stability in center field for the future. Right-hander Tink Therefore was the only Cardinals prospect on the top-50 list, but they have an interesting farm system and young players like Jordan Walker and Ivan Herrera who could be included in a deal.”

RJ Anderson, CBSSports.com: “We've seen time and time again over the past few years that the role of the starting pitcher is changing; workload expectations are decreasing, resulting in a shift in what teams are demanding of their starting candidates. (Tink) Therefore has followed this trend. He's a small right-hander (he's listed at 6'1″ and 190 pounds) who has averaged less than five innings per start this season. Still, a compelling argument can be made that he's one of the best pitching prospects in the minors thanks to a quality, versatile arsenal. Therefore has already established himself at the Double-A level. We're excited to see how the Cardinals manage his workload going forward, leading up to his inevitable MLB debut.”

Bob Nightingale, USA today: “You can't blame David Ross anymore, can you? Ross is sitting at home this summer, collecting his paycheck and watching his resume look a lot better while the Cubs plummet. The Cubs have spent money, gotten tremendous value out of rookie sensation Shota Imanaga, and yet somehow end up in last place. The only category this team is ahead in is players ejected for stealing: 35 and counting.”

Levi Weber, The athlete: “Like (Jazz) Chisholm, (Randy) Arozarena won't be a free agent until after the 2026 season. But he's also three years older than Chisholm, and if the 29-year-old is traded by the Rays, who seem to have no qualms about rummaging through talent, he could be a big addition to a team in need of a right-handed and corner outfielder. That fact can't be ignored: His numbers are down this year. Away down. Entering 2024, his career slash line was .265/.351/.451 (.802 OPS). This year, it's .196/.307/.356 (.663) — a shocking drop. So the Rays might choose not to sell low during a lull. But buyers considering the investment will certainly note that Arozarena has been at his best in big moments. Look at his career postseason line: .336/.414/.690 (1,104). That's an October star, and any trade for Arozarena would have that month in mind.”

Kathryn Xu, The defector: “Tuesday's news that the Miami Marlins were no longer allowed to play Tim Anderson. That feels brutal and final considering where he played. This 30-54 team that could basically simulate the rest of the season with no real consequences decided to get rid of a player on a one-year, $5 million contract because his performance was so poor it was justified. Anderson's season is so disastrous that it's difficult to find a meaningful explanation for how he was able to record the statistics he put up. No qualified hitter has a WRC+ below 60 because any hitter with less than that, 40 percent worse than league average, would never play enough to qualify. If you set the minimum at 200 batting appearances, Anderson is at the bottom of the list with a WRC+ of 31. All of his Baseball Savant sliders form a blue expanse that rivals the width of the sky. Pick your culprits: his 28.2 percent strikeout rate, his 62 percent groundball rate. If you want to point to his 2.9 percent walk rate, you certainly can, but even when he was great, Anderson rarely walked. This year he has just three extra-base hits, all of them doubles. What's shocking about Anderson, aside from the fact that he performed so miserably within the given sample, is the severity of the decline since his All-Star season in 2022. That year he hit .301/.339/.395 — it still wasn't his best year, but it was more than enough, even if his fielding looked a little shaky.”

“Some players just feel comfortable in the big situation. It's not just about a certain city or a certain place, it's about the importance of a game, the importance of a batting average. He just feels comfortable in those situations. He believes in himself. He has confidence when he plays, and he's just getting started.”

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