NORTH TEXAS – July began with three triple-digit highs. There have been five such days so far this summer.

A heat warning is in effect for North Texas for the eleventh day in a row. On Thursday, a heat warning is in effect until 8 p.m. Please take appropriate heat precautions at all picnics, parades and fireworks displays tomorrow.

According to the weather forecast for the long holiday, Thursday will be the only day with 38 °C. After that, there is a chance of rain.

As the heat dome moves east and weakens, it opens the door for a cold front to move into North Texas. One will arrive late Thursday night and stay over North Texas through Saturday. Rain is likely beginning Thursday night.

The better chances are on Friday, but the chance of rain will remain through the weekend and beyond. Yes, after three weeks of no rain in DFW, suddenly there's a chance of rain every day.

The chance of rain for the coming week depends heavily on the path of Hurricane Beryl once it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. It will make landfall in Yucatan on Friday, likely as a Category 2 hurricane, and will immediately weaken.

The official forecast calls for it to reform as a Category 1 storm and make landfall somewhere in northern Mexico or southern Texas late Monday. Its path in the Gulf is unusually uncertain.

The elevation pattern over the southern half of the United States plays a role here. Because Texas lies between two high pressure systems (an area called a “col,” or saddle point), all of Beryl's tropical moisture has a clear path to North Texas.

The weather is not “random.” What happens today affects what happens tomorrow. What happens in one season or year affects what happens in the next season or year. We call this “serial correlation.”

Hurricanes create a massive pool of water vapor in the depths of the atmosphere. This moisture, which is stored during the early Julythis changes the entire first half of the July forecast. Rain chances will remain throughout next week. Temperatures will be just above 30 degrees instead of in the triple digits. Then we'll go through another cycle where we slowly remove soil moisture as we return to hot and dry weather. This will keep highs a little lower each day. Here are the forecast highs for the next 10 days.

So your cooling and water bills will soon be relieved. Here is the 7-day forecast.