The Lynx have to live with threes a lot more than Connecticut because the Sun's style of play is more reliable day to day. Connecticut plays slow and shoots the ball inside to their multiple forwards who can all score at the basket or grab offensive rebounds for second chances to putback. Connecticut has been consistent all season, they've had the same starting lineup in all 19 games and every starter averaged double figures. They share the ball well, dominate the basket and that style of play goes down well. Minnesota lost the first game to Connecticut, hitting just 4 of 21 threes because the Sun's defense was able to stretch their defense and shut down shooters. The same will happen here as Connecticut is the best defensive team in the league and will keep the game close enough to cover or win.

Take Connecticut with the points.

These are the two best defenses in the WNBA in terms of points allowed per game. Connecticut is deliberately playing slow because their lineup is loaded with forwards who can score at the basket, including Bonner, Thomas, and Jones. The Sun won't change their strategy because their advantage in this game is in the post. The Lynx like to shoot from outside, but the last time they played Connecticut, they made just 19% of their threes. These two teams are also the league's best defenses when it comes to threes. Opponents are making just 27.9% of their threes from beyond the arc when playing Minnesota and 29.3% against Connecticut. These teams will struggle on defense because Connecticut is taking its time on offense, leading to an under.

Take the bottom one.