CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — In addition to Beryl, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring another tropical wave, Invest 96L, which follows Beryl by about 2 days. This disturbance currently has a 10% chance of developing and appears to be more of a moisture disperser than anything else. The primary focus is on Beryl.

Beryl is a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 110 mph (177 km/h) and gusts of 130 mph (210 km/h). It is moving from the WNW at 20 mph (32 km/h). Beryl is experiencing wind shear in the western Caribbean, weakening the storm.

The forecast cone for Beryl as of July 4 at 4 p.m. continues to indicate a tropical storm emerging from the Yucatan on Friday evening and moving northwest. Beryl is forecast to regain hurricane status before making landfall in the western Gulf of Mexico on Monday morning, with winds of 75 mph. The current forecast cone is centered on the Texas-Mexico border. The National Hurricane Center also advises that rapid intensification in the 12 to 18 hours before landfall is also possible.

There remains uncertainty about the exact path Beryl will take and where exactly the storm will make landfall. While forecast models are beginning to lock in the Texas-Mexico border for a Monday morning landfall, what happens after landfall could have significant impacts on the coastal bend. Some forecasts suggest the storm will track more northward after landfall, which would bring the storm's center into the coastal bend and keep it close enough to the Gulf where it may retain some strength after landfall. From where the current forecast is centered to where it would need to be to pose a major problem for the coastal bend is only about 50-60 miles. The track error averages about 100-150 miles in 3 to 4 days. That's something to keep in mind.

Tropical storm strength could reach South Texas as early as Sunday afternoon, but conditions will most likely develop overnight into Monday morning.

The forecast graphics below are entirely dependent on where Beryl's center is moving and will be adjusted accordingly as the forecast center shifts in the coming days. The National Hurricane Center is superior at track forecasting, so these forecasts are based on that fact.

WIND: According to the current track forecast, the strongest winds will be in the valley. Given the current centerline and intensity forecast, hurricane force conditions are most likely there. Most coastal areas are currently expected to see sustained winds of 30-50 mph, with some gusts up to about 65 mph. That's tropical storm force conditions on Monday. Farther north and west, winds are weaker. Keep in mind that an eastward shift in the track could mean higher wind speeds and a westward shift could mean lower values. We're talking about 50-60 mile shifts here, which isn't much.

The wind speed forecast for Thursday does not appear to require barricading homes. However, tropical storm force winds are enough to knock down trees and send branches flying, so these forecast numbers may include debris. That is something to keep in mind.

RAIN: Again, there will be shifts in the forecast as the centerline is adjusted, but the highest values ​​will be near and north of the center where Beryl moves. Starting Thursday, we expect 5-7 inches across much of the coastal bend, with lower totals inland. This will be in effect through Tuesday of next week. More rain is coming here, with another tropical wave behind Beryl, though it doesn't look nearly as organized.

WAVES: We expect an increase in swell on Coastal Bend beaches starting Saturday. This increases the risk of rip currents. Wave heights will then begin to rise on Sunday and Monday. At that time, waves over 10 feet high could be on our way. Coastal flooding and storm surge are likely. The National Hurricane Center has not yet issued storm surge data, but I suspect the tide will be higher than the 3-3.5 feet Alberto sent a few weeks ago.

Overall, it looks like Monday will be the most weather-influencing day on the coast as Beryl approaches the Texas-Mexico border. Keep an eye on the weather and follow the latest forecasts as there will be changes in the days leading up to landfall. Small changes in a situation like this can lead to big changes in the impacts a location faces.

Be sure to check out the 2024 KIII Hurricane Special – You can watch (or rewatch) it here! The special covers topics like evacuations, hurricane kits, and surf backwash – in addition to information like the tropical outlook and new data on hurricane-related deaths. You won't want to miss it!

For more information about the weather in our region, see our forecast article.

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The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30. The climatological peak of the season is September 10.

Here are the names for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) are named.

On May 23, NOAA released its forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. They predict a above average Year with 17-25 named storms. That is the highest preseason forecast ever published.

The high number of forecast storms is due to near-record sea surface temperatures and the return of La Niña, both of which favor tropical cyclone development. We talk about this in more detail in our hurricane special, which you can watch here!

Remember not to rely on the first weather forecast you see – forecasts change. Also, rely on a credible source for your tropical information and forecasts.