After another period of unforeseen strengthening late Thursday, Beryl finally lost some of its strength early Friday as it approached Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula and made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane just north of Tulum.

Although official wind speeds were estimated at about 110 mph (177 km/h), satellite and radar trends suggest these estimates may be generous, as Beryl's eyewall eroded noticeably in the hours before landfall—particularly on the southern side—as wind shear and dry air finally penetrated the hurricane's center.

Nevertheless, Beryl again exceeded earlier forecasts that had predicted a weaker Category 1 hurricane as it approached Yucatán.

The theme of Beryl's lifetime so far has been a tendency to overachieve, and that tendency was clearly on display Thursday night when Hurricane Hunters flying Beryl recorded another round of sudden strengthening. Fortunately for southern Mexico, the strengthening trend was short-lived, but even the last-minute weakening wasn't enough to bring Beryl back to earlier expectations.

Beryl is the strongest hurricane since Hurricane Delta in October 2020, which struck near the resort areas of Cozumel, Cancun and Tulum.

Hurricane Emily in 2005 was the last major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) to strike these areas, and Hurricane Dean in 2007 was the last Category 3 or higher hurricane to strike anywhere in the Yucatán Peninsula.

Beryl's last performance takes place in South Texas

The strengthening trend and the significant northward increase late Thursday were not positive developments for South Texas residents.

As we discussed in our newsletters this week, a stronger hurricane would experience a stronger pull from a jet stream intrusion at higher elevations as it approaches the western Gulf of Mexico late Sunday night into Monday.

Stronger hurricanes are also higher hurricanes, meaning their trajectories are more influenced by steering factors higher up, such as weaknesses caused by the jet stream.

Because Beryl performed above average late Thursday and tracked north of previous forecasts, it will likely be stronger on the other side of the Yucatan since it spent less time over land. Additionally, forecasts have slowed since yesterday, giving Beryl more time in the water this weekend to recover and feel the pull toward South Texas.

As a result, NHC forecasts trended slower, stronger, and further north.

Overall conditions in the Gulf appear increasingly conducive to hurricane re-intensification, and a stronger hurricane cannot be ruled out, especially given Beryl's past history. Even hurricane models with known strong biases such as the HWRF have largely underestimated Beryl's intensity so far, so it is not unreasonable to approach forecasts for lower intensities with some skepticism.

Current forecasts indicate a Category 1 or 2 hurricane threat in northern Mexico and southern Texas south of Corpus Christi early Monday.

Beryl will unfortunately slow down as it moves deeper inland over South Texas, bringing with it growing concerns about torrential rains.

The National Weather Service is already warning of the threat of excessive precipitation for Monday and Tuesday, extending beyond the South Texas borders into the Texas Hill Country and the greater Houston area, so we can expect rising trends in the coming days.

For Texas residents and beachgoers, Beryl is a growing threat that must be taken seriously, with potential impacts possible as early as Sunday, so please check the latest weather forecasts regularly and follow the advice of local authorities this weekend.

Atlantic shows signs of a brief weakening after Beryl

It's dust season at its peak, and a strong flow of dry Saharan air is finally settling over the Atlantic. Large-scale conditions over the tropical Atlantic look to be less favorable next week, so we should get at least a brief respite from the record-breaking activity earlier in the season.

The tropical disturbance we have been tracking behind Beryl (Invest 96L) is following in Beryl's footsteps toward Yucatán, but is not expected to develop further.